Why is Duterte Afraid to Go Home? Prefers to Stay in HK for 30 Days

Rodrigo Duterte’s Sudden Departure to Hong Kong Amid ICC Arrest Warrant Rumors: What’s Really Happening?

Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s unexpected departure to Hong Kong has sparked intense speculation, particularly following reports from The Manila Times that the International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued a warrant for his arrest via an Interpol Red Notice. The development, sourced from high-ranking officials within the Philippine National Police (PNP), suggests that Duterte may be attempting to evade potential legal repercussions stemming from alleged human rights violations committed during his administration’s controversial war on drugs.

A Timely Departure or a Calculated Move?

Duterte’s travel plans to Hong Kong were not publicly announced, leading many to question the timing and intention behind his sudden month-long stay abroad. Sources close to the former president have downplayed any connection between his travel and the rumored ICC warrant, asserting that Duterte remains unbothered by the court’s actions, which he and his allies continue to dismiss as illegitimate.

However, the length of his stay raises eyebrows. Traditionally, Duterte has kept his international trips brief. His decision to remain in Hong Kong for an entire month suggests that he may be buying time, gauging the government’s next moves before making a decision on whether to return to the Philippines or seek an alternative course of action.

PNP Gearing Up for a High-Stakes Arrest?

While Duterte’s camp denies the existence of an arrest warrant, the actions of the PNP tell a different story. Reports suggest that key law enforcement units have begun preparations, possibly for a high-profile arrest. If true, this contradicts the Duterte camp’s narrative that the ICC warrant is a fabrication designed to undermine the former president’s influence.

Interestingly, the Marcos administration has yet to officially acknowledge the existence of any Interpol Red Notice, which some speculate is a strategic move. By not confirming or denying the warrant’s issuance, authorities may be attempting to lure Duterte back to the Philippines under the guise of normalcy before executing a legal maneuver upon his return.

Hong Kong: A Safe Haven or a Transit Point?

Duterte’s choice of Hong Kong as his temporary refuge is also significant. As a Special Administrative Region of China, Hong Kong does not automatically comply with ICC orders due to China’s non-membership in the court. This means Duterte may feel relatively secure there, at least for now. However, should his stay extend beyond his initially declared one-month period, questions will mount about whether he is actively avoiding returning to the Philippines out of fear of arrest.

Given the PNP’s alleged preparations and the ICC’s persistent pursuit of accountability for human rights violations, Duterte’s prolonged absence could eventually lead to diplomatic and legal complications. If the warrant is indeed real, he may eventually face limitations on his travel options, as countries cooperating with the ICC would be obligated to enforce the Red Notice.

Confusion as a Tactic?

Duterte’s camp appears to be engaged in a deliberate strategy of obfuscation. By denying the existence of an arrest warrant while simultaneously making moves that suggest otherwise, they are creating a cloud of uncertainty that could serve multiple purposes. It allows them to test the waters regarding the government’s response while keeping supporters from panicking. At the same time, it forces authorities to play a waiting game, potentially delaying enforcement actions.

If the government is indeed withholding public acknowledgment of the ICC warrant as a means of enticing Duterte to return, it signals a complex political maneuver at play. The Marcos administration, which has maintained a cautious stance toward the ICC, may be carefully balancing its domestic and international obligations while avoiding direct confrontation with Duterte’s supporters.

What Happens Next?

As Duterte remains in Hong Kong, the situation remains fluid. If he returns, all eyes will be on the government’s next move—will the PNP execute the alleged arrest preparations, or will they maintain the status quo? If Duterte chooses to prolong his stay abroad, it will only reinforce speculation that the ICC warrant is indeed active and that his departure was not just a routine trip but a calculated escape.

Regardless of what unfolds in the coming weeks, this development marks a critical moment in Philippine politics. The possibility of Duterte facing international justice is no longer a distant theory—it is now a looming reality. Whether he successfully evades accountability or becomes the first Philippine president to be arrested under an international order remains to be seen.